Traeger investment: stock is down over 50%

[Traegernator]

Traeger stock ($COOK) is down over 50%!!! What in the world is going on with them? I'm loosing my briskets over here with my investment!

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[TheGrumpyGriller]

Maybe it's because the cost of brisket (along with virtually every other protein) has gone up by 50% .

 

[midwest]

I know virtually nothing about Traeger as a company. Here is my very uneducated guess. From what I recall Traeger was the first or one of the first regularly available pellet grill. Now there are brands that are far better (and more expensive) and there are brands that are a lot cheaper. Your name can only take you so far. A big percentage of consumers shop based solely on price, if that is the case you won't end up with a Traeger. Some people research and want to spend money for the best quality cooker they can get. Those people won't end up with a Traeger either. Now you are stuck trying to attract those in the middle.

 

[BobbyQ]

I think I've said this before but you're only as good as you're last quarter results. Their revenue was up but their "earnings" turned into a loss. It's sad that the so-called analysts and experts don't appreciate the long term picture even though they say they do. I once worked for a company that sold off some of their real estate to offset losses elsewhere just to boost the bottom line to please the "analysts".

 

[primeone]

Ouch, I was mad at myself for not buying this when they became public. Maybe now's a good time to buy some?

 

[BobbyQ]

Ouch, I was mad at myself for not buying this when they became public. Maybe now's a good time to buy some?

Maybe, but the CEO said they will still be plagued by "supply chain" issues going forward.

 

[DVSCYCLES]

Ouch, I was mad at myself for not buying this when they became public. Maybe now's a good time to buy some?

I bought some the first day and in 2 weeks it more than doubled. Guess I should have flipped it but I'm in for the long term.

 

[BobbyQ]

Over the years I found that if I wanted to buy a stock that aligned with one of my interests I would use money that I would otherwise take to the crap table or mod my Jeep. Insiders will beat you all the time. After all there’s 535 of them looking after us. Right?

 

[DVSCYCLES]

Over the years I found that if I wanted to buy a stock that aligned with one of my interests I would use money that I would otherwise take to the crap table or mod my Jeep. Insiders will beat you all the time. After all there’s 535 of them looking after us. Right?

Exactly my mind set. So it is just play money.

 

[OldMayfield]

Gotta agree with midwest and BobbyQ. Invest to make money, not because you like the smoked pork shoulder or ribs.

 

[primeone]

The stock hit another all time low today. Weber's stock (WEBR) isn't doing much better. It's also in the 52 week low camp.

 

[Fishon6730]

Haven't been watching it but glad i dumped it when it doubled. I second the supply chain issues as a reason. That along with shipping costs has hurt these companies. Perhaps they should consider moving manufacturing to the USA and source the materials locally. Of course the price goes up but the quality should as well.

Time to buy I think

 

[putnamm]

It's because they sell a brand, not a working product. They sell beards and pictures of rare steaks and guitar riffs and tattoos and badass leather aprons slathered in grease and other things guys really want to believe they're a part of.

They sell malfunctioning grills that, as a Traeger customer service rep actually told me on the phone, "...don't work great in Texas."

Much like my Traeger, people are unloading their stock. Good riddance.

 

[Hardrocker]

I love my Timberline 850 (Gen 1) and use it all the time. I love the way the food tastes. Sometimes good products or brands don't make good investments. You are investing in the company not the product. I love the Denver Bronco's and I want them to win the next Super Bowl but I'm not putting money on the line that they will.

That being said, it appears the Traeger stock (ticker: COOK - great ticker BTW) is following a typical IPO cycle and is currently in the "trough of despair". I'd wait a few more quarters until the company to establish a track record. Let the management team show they are good capital allocators. They've only reported for 1 quarter. This quarter they beat on revenue, but missed on earnings. Supply chain issues are definitely affecting them.

The company has a "razor/razor blade" model with grills/pellets and rubs. Also interesting is if they could drum up a subscription revenue model with the Traeger App. The margins on that would be much higher than the selling smokers and accessories. This investment doesn't really excite me. I'm more of a 1000% growth over 10 years investor, but if the management team is good, then the current price might be a good entry point.

 

[smokeOnwater]

Traeger problems are very simple; their stuff ain't coming from China on an airplane, that's 100%. So containers it is, and container rates are about 10x more expensive today than they were when Traeger started importation, and that's if you can even find capacity on a ship. And that's if you can even get the container offloaded once it gets to Long Beach. And that's if you can even find a truck to take the container to the clearing agent. So on and so forth. It's a huge mess out there.